Best investment forecast

‘Market Forecast’ by Barry Ritholtz. This has got to be the best forecast.

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Full article: http://www.businessinsider.com/barry-ritholtz-2014-market-predictions-2013-12

Jokes aside, I think the key is that we can never be too certain about what’s ahead or be 100% sure of what’s going to happen and at which point in time. Aptly put, the better way is to make short-term, tactical adjustments while keeping to the long-term, strategic investment plan. 

and this too, is our guiding principle for investment portfolio management.

Circle of competence

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This is one of my favorite concepts in life. It is actually Warren Buffett’s belief towards investing – to only pick and analyze companies which he understands. To focus investors on areas that they have an edge in. This is his way to win.
Personally, I also believe that this applies to life – that if we focus our effort and commit to one area, we will become highly successful in it and that we will win in life, too. I am also in the midst of building my career in this one singular area so I cannot say for sure that it WILL definitely work.. But based on the many successful individuals, I believe it to be true.

this recent article I came across on Business Insider illustrates this really well:

“If you want to be the best tennis player in the world, you may start out trying and soon find out that it’s hopeless — that other people blow right by you. However, if you want to become the best plumbing contractor in Bemidji, that is probably doable by two-thirds of you. It takes a will. It takes the intelligence. But after a while, you’d gradually know all about the plumbing business in Bemidji and master the art. That is an attainable objective, given enough discipline. And people who could never win a chess tournament or stand in center court in a respectable tennis tournament can rise quite high in life by slowly developing a circle of competence — which results partly from what they were born with and partly from what they slowly develop through work.”

Recently, I met with quite a few people who have a keen interest to start their own business but whom have put off their aspirations because of their lack of capital. As a result, they also do not build on their competency, which is a HUGE waste… because out there, there are people whose ‘edge’ is that they are rich and they are willing to invest. Food for thought for all of us? To build a circle of competence, regardless .

 

Why are our piggy banks shaped like pigs?

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The origin of piggy banks dates back nearly 600 years, in a time before real banks existed. Back then,, people commonly stored their money at home — not under the mattress (or hay rack), but in common kitchen jars. These clay pots are also know as pygg pots.
As language evolved, pygg and word pig (pigge) starts to sound the same… After which, in the 19th century when English potters received requests for pygg banks, they started producing banks shaped like pigs. An accidental invention.

I started thinking about piggy banks because I was shortlisting gifts ideas for the little ones. Then, I remembered the one common item I have always received as a kid – the piggy bank. It also got me thinking or rather, trying to recall the first time I saved for something i really wanted. I do not remember what was it for me, but I do remember how I felt after I achieved it- major sense of achievement.

I also remember my first piggy bank, the old school plastic piggy one which had no opening for taking the money out. I always wondered why it was made that way and it got me making countless attempts to shake the money out from the slot. Attempts only, as I never succeeded. But I suppose that is what it means to save for rainy day. You only ‘kill your piggy’ and take the money out when you really have to, when what you want is more important than the ‘friend’.
The situation now is very different. I think it will gets increasingly difficult to educate the younger crowd on ‘value’, or on the concept of ‘putting in effort for what you want’. This is especially true in SG context where the young ones usually get what they want simply by asking. It’s a sticky case.

Gift ideas
1. Toys
2. Clothes
3. Piggy banks
4. Tech gadgets

And of course… It’s no longer relevant or appreciated as a gift idea.